QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTIES AND EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE

In all steps taken during the preparation of such technical study there are always uncertainties: in all measurements or calculations. TÜRKSOY E.M.D. having the most widespread know-how in this field, does not base the quantification of uncertainties on assumptions but on computations. For this purpose, uncertainties being analyzed for each DAS, if there are more than one DAS, uncertainties are handled separately for each turbine taking into account the DAS of which the WTG is connected to. Uncertainties are calculated in the unit of energy as much as possible, only wind measurement related uncertainties calculated in the unit of speed. The variability of wind is tested using long-term wind data with Monte-Carlo simulation. Hence, a coefficient of variation is obtained for 1, 10 and 20 years horizons. These coefficients are then used to evaluate and report the probability of exceedance of wind speed, net energy yield and capacity factor for 50%, 75%, 84% and 90% (for 1, 10 and 20 years).

TÜRKSOY Enerji Mühendislik ve Danışmanlık Ltd. Şti.

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